@jannesalovaara I am humbled by your powerful essay on Collapse by Design, building on the work of Joseph Tainter and demonstrating a profound understanding and appreciation of systems.
Your assertion that “every system has, at one point failed — collapsed” acknowledges that not only are human beings fallible in their designs, but so is nature. In nature, system designs ill suited for their environments do not survive for long. You point out that human beings have the (possibily misguided) characteristic to extend the lives of systems that would otherwise collapse (and could be better off dead).
The idea of an “intended weak point” that provides signals of an impending decline or failure is not something that we ever discussed in class, and is a true contribution to scholarship. The feature of learning or “to preserve what there is left to be saved in a controlled way” could become a fundamental principle in the conception and design of robust systems. There’s an interesting question as to whether this “fail-safe” function has to be designed at inception of the system, or whether existing systems could have the feature incorporated.
This idea reminds me of a colleague who designed his house to be burglar-proof, by securing all entries to the building, with one door that might be judged as less secure under surveillance. Breaking in through that one weak point would then put the intruder into an enclosed area with a fully secured entry that he or she would be challenged to destroy. Of course, there was an alarm on the weak point, so the homeowner would be notified of the intrusion before the burglar might get to any valuables.
There is a relationship between your “intended weak point”, and the new research on regime shifts that is underway by researchers into ecosystem services. At the Resilience 2011 meeting, I attended a session where research on early warning indicators and turning back from the brink were discussed.
In thinking about design, you’ve also acknowledged the state of post-normal science, and that we may reach limits in learning. In addition, “knowing which fights to pick” reflects that we simultanousely participate in multiple systems, and we have limited resources that can be applied.
In describing five desired attributes for weak points (e.g. break under stress, but understand stress too), you’re almost at the point of propositions that could be developed into a theory, and then tested for completeness and validity with concrete examples. If you choose to pursue this line of ideas further, you may have the beginnings of a thesis from this essay.
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